Obama on the rise and rise and rise

Hillary already has been begging the country just to remember that the important thing for November is to vote Democratic. There must be change of Government. She is a wise woman and, I fear, she can see the writing on the wall.
It is not looking too good for her. She will have to pull a rabbit out of the hat - as the media keeps gnawing at her image, carrying on about botox, making ugly kerfuffles over Chelsea, sniping about Bill... making up whatever it can get away with.
It's rough.

Of course, many of the Obama simpletons who are bouncing around, high as kites on the novelty of a political experience, think that "change" is something Obama has invented.

They think that "change" is a policy!

I am very sad watching the latest Caucus figures emerging, still boggling at how utterly stupid the very essence of caucuses are. Only 2 per cent of the registered Republicans turned up at their Washington caucuses? The weather was bad? They did not bother with their political responsibility. I just hope those Republicans stay indoors again in November when the big election is on. Their political apathy will be useful then.

Meanwhile, Obama is going from strength to strength in these evolving primaries - and I see Teddy Kennedy rubbing his hands together because he will have control. I see Oprah priming up to dub herself a president-maker responsible, with her new best buddy Michelle Obama, for a bright new black agenda.
I see a lot of people around Obama, pulling strings - but I do not see a man with great depth of potential in his own right.

I never did - not from that first encounter in NH, when I went to the Seniors Centre to get up close and personal with him, to listen to him and see what he was all about. That was when my hopes melted away in a puddle of Obama rhetoric. He is a sophist. He is a sophist. There was no "there" there.
I left feeling a bit empty and disappointed.

It made the deciding factor for this old political animal. I had been to see and hear Hillary and I needed to know how Obama matched up. And there was a man with no real policy. Just fluent sophistry. That was the point at which I phoned the Hillary Campaign and offered my services.

So, of course, I think my choice is the right choice.
I think Hillary Clinton is absolutely exceptional - a very able woman with an informed grasp on almost every aspect of most ever domestic and international political issue. That is pretty rare and I'd challenge any other candidate to match her erudition.

Sadly, the common voter neither knows nor cares. Many have some media-induced idea of a Clinton agenda. They have believed what the media has told them - that she is cold and ambitious, which are taken to be evils in a woman, albeit strengths in a man.
The media wins.

The media has marketed Obama as a favoured Dem. It suits the precious youth demographic which is all the media wants to know about. His is quite a marketable commodity, of course.

Obama is really very nice in myriad ways. He is superbly fluent, like an elegant preacher. His books are fantastic. I rather fell in love with him when I read him.
He is tall and handsome.

But the very "change" business that the media has marketed and the young have embraced with such enthusiasm, is still turning me off.

Give us a break!
Elections are all about change. They are for change

What actual change is Obama promising? Just change.
His policies are more philosophic than political nitty gritty. He promises hope. Nice things. He promises to bring the cost of living down with tax breaks and to raise the minimum wage. He does not want anyone to be poor. He wants college to be affordable..so long as students work for the peace corps in return. This is their pleasant payback for tuition. Of course this is very appealing to the young.
Obama is very appealing.
The young are rapt.

Now, in the grand scheme of potential presidents, he is a pretty classy possibility. There is no doubt about that.
The Democratic candidates made a lineup of exceptional individuals. Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, John Edwards...and, of course, the brilliant Hillary Clinton.
Each one had fine potential as a president. America can be proud that it can, in fact, line up such an array of pure class.

The Iowa washup

Can Obama do in New Hampshire what he just did in Iowa - bring out the young voters en masse? It is what Howard Dean failed to do four years ago. He seemed feted by the young and yet they simply dematerialised when the cold night of caucus turned up.

In Obama's case, they followed through in the cold night of caucus. They put their bodies where their rally cheers had been.

I continue to harbour reservations about Obama - especially since I noted a new cadence in his voice, one taken directly from the "I have a dream" delivery of Martin Luther King. Cunning marketing ploy. Congratulations to whichever smart strategist groomed him up on that.

I would like Obama to be president in a few years, when that awful, pushy and divisive wife of his has learned a few things. We place First Ladies in power, too, you know. Michelle Obama is dangerous.
And I would like Obama to find some substance - since he is mainly sophistry.

So, why did he poll so well in Iowa? Could it be the Oprah factor? I bet she thinks so - and maybe it is so. Ah, and what a lot that would say about media power.

Talking of which, that featured appearance on the Jay Leno show, the much-publicised first show since the writers' strike, did no harm to Mike Huckabee. It was the most valuable sales pitch in the world. It made me wonder about Jay. Here we have another media celebrity throwing his weight into the electoral process. On the eve of the caucus, he provides national exposure which can only be compared to endorsement.

Huckabee did very well on Leno. Leno cunningly had all the old footage of the fat Huckabee who is now a slim Huckabee. If there is one thing Americans admire, it is a successful weight-loser. Vast amounts of television time are devoted to diet and weight loss. And Leno leaned away from the extreme right views espoused by Huckabee - moderated him nicely for the broad, mainstream audience. Intelligent design was not mentioned at all. We just got that very, very personable man. Oh my, he is a good candidate. He has a fatherly, protective, reliable, good natured facade and a lovely sense of humour. He is disarmingly attractive package.

So where was Hillary in all of this? She has the star of husband Bill shining at a discreet distance - and she looked and sounded wonderful. The pundits say she fared poorly because of her voting record in the Senate, because she was not against the war on Iraq, because she has never recanted that mistake... Gee, the negative market is tough. I don't know how many times she has to say "if she knew what she knows now she would never have voted as she did then". A zillion times is not enough. Perchance she is damned for ever on that cautionary stance which is seen and endlessly promoted by the Fox-driven anti-Clinton push as her buttering her political bread. If the Clinton campaign has made mistakes, not placing more emphasis on regaining this lost ground is at the top of the list. They have chosen to play ostrich. Wrong. They need to penetrate the dubious masses who have listened to Fox.

Hillary remains the candidate for the thinking voter, however. The thinking voter sees straight through Fox.

I was not at all unhappy to see John Edwards get some recognition in Iowa. One can only admire the utter dedication and determination of that man, the unswerving self-belief and the pure stamina in campaigning towards the presidency - again.
I like him.
I was sad Richardson fared poorly. I like him, too.
I was sorry that Biden and Dodd were presented with the writing on the wall and, wisely, stepped back. Good men, both. But there's simply not enough room for all these good men.

Romney is not a good man. I am enjoying watching this become evident. Romney and the mormon camp tried to look sweetie goody-twoshoes, happy families - until things started going against them. Then the facade came down and the dirty tricks and venom oozed out of the campaign like political pus. Romney must lose, for the sake of the USA and the world.

For all his sinister religious extremism, even Huckabee is a better choice.

Counting down, holding breath

The countdown is on. Even from this vast distance I can feel the hype in Nashua as the primary voting day approaches.
I've seen the support bases out and about in New Hampshire - the Obama crowd versus the Clinton crowd versus the Giuliani crowd.
They are different beasts. Obama would seem to have made up a vast amount of distance catching up to Clinton as the vote approaches but I still wonder, having looked over that supporter base, if they are really all viable voters. Something about them reminds me of the Howard Dean phenomenon in the last election. An ephemera of enthusiasts.

The Clinton camp has always looked stronger insofar as Hillary has a large body of older, earnest voters who are serious about issues.

Perhaps I am saying that the voters mirror the candidates.

The Giuliani mob was besuited and staid. McCain's were strongly veteran families. I did not get a chance to see a Huckabee crowd. I wonder if I could have coped with all those creationists. Perhaps it's better I missed that lot.
The Edwards and Richardson crowd were more mixed and I sensed that there were many among them just checking out the candidates. They both are impressive, as it happens.

But now the crunch comes and the wheat will be sorted from the chaff.

But perhaps not immediately. Winning in Iowa or New Hampshire may be seen as a very good sign but the race is still only partly run. There are 50 states, all with different rules and regulations in the electoral business, and they will have to have their say - right down to the conventions. Perhaps there will be hung votes.

We can only wait and see, knowing that at the grassroots level of the campaigns, those phones will be running hot, emails will be flying, door-knockers will be out - and I, sadly, will not be among them.

Hillary - racing like a thoroughbred

The Iowa caucuses are just a couple of months away. So is the New Hampshire primary, come to think of it. The year has been racing forth mercilessly.
I continue to admire the incredible stamina of the leading candidates in sustaining the pace required to get the message across, meet the people, raise the profile…
Hillary now is so solidly in the lead that one has to fear that the opponents’ dirty tricks campaign are around the next corner. It has been a pleasure to watch her, the thoroughbred of political candidates, pull out into first place and keep the pace up without a backward glance.
Obama, who has never missed a chance to have a snipe at Hillary, has ramped up his television advertising in a last-minute bid to catch up with Hillary. But, last month he failed to show up for a Democratic debate in Iowa. What a mistake. I am not sure what his reason was but it was a golden opportunity for Hillary to shine – and she did.
The more she is diligently and consistently out there, the more the people are realising that she has depth and experience. She is spectacularly well informed and, oh my, she is disciplined and she is strong.

I have not mentioned John Edwards for ages – because he really isn’t worth a mention. He has campaigned with great confidence and determination yet again. But he simply is not “it”. The daddy working for the mill patter now is tired and no one will forget that $400 haircut. It was the lethal misstep. That is all it takes in politics.

Obama has not made one, but there is still time. He is the Howard Dean of this primary – boosted by noisy young. But the young are flighty. I’ll take a punt that half his support base has not even registered to vote.

Hillary has had a couple of close shaves, if one is to believe the beat-ups of Fox news. But, the more solidly she leads the pack, the more respectful the detractors seem to be becoming, as if readying themselves to accept her as president.
Even the old chestnut of how “polarising” Hillary is has not been getting much ink in the media.

Ah, yes, things are looking pretty good.

At the parish pump

New Hampshire has yet to set a date for its Primary. It prefers to give short notice, especially now that the other states are breathing down its neck. Florida, for instance, thinks it should have greater prestige in the national Primary business and it has moved is Primary date from March to seven days after the NH Primary or February 5 - whichever comes first. California is champing at the bit to raise its electoral profile and it is aiming for February 5. So is New York. Nevada, meanwhile, has announced a Democrats-only contest on January 19.
What is going on?
Already the businesses of Primaries and Caucuses are confusing - but why can't the various states leave the tradition alone?
Well, whatever the policies involved in the political race, whatever the issues with the incumbent Administration, it is all about dollars. This is America, after all. Presidents might administer, but dollars rule.

The candidates have been raising vast amounts of money. Quite a bit of that is spent in New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina, who are the traditional early states wherein the candidates spend a lot of time coming face-to-face with the people. That is what is special about New Hampshire. It's about scale, the fact that it is a parish pump state. As such, it has always been considered something of a barometer to the nation's political mood.
In massive, broadly-spread population areas such as California, this sort of grass roots interaction is not feasible. The pollies are spread thin. So, they have to depend on advertising. And this is what those states want. They want election advertising revenue.