Wednesday, July 4, 2007

Power of the people


July 4.
Independence Day street parades in New Hampshire are also presidential primary street parades.
Oh yes, the usual community groups are out there bedecked in the glory of Uncle Sam's Americana - the stars and stripes and the red white and blue - with candy scattering across the tarmac to thrill the children.
But for the grownups, it is a political parade.
All the local politicians showcase themselves - and, as primary fever revs up, the presidential candidates also are represented by a showing of the support base.
It turns out to be the pollster's dream - a stunningly transparent statistical message.

Here is how the primary is panning out - as demonstrated by the marchers of the Merrimack parade.

Number One for organisation, numbers and the copious early spreading of the support stickers among the crowds was Hillary Clinton. Almost everyone seemed to be wearing Vote for Hillary stickers.
Not only did she have a large and cohesive band of marchers but also her team had prepared a proper parade float, a race car with the promise of leading the way.




Number One for noise and pizazz was Barack Obama.
His green team, in matching t-shirts, chanted a loud Obama chorus - leading the way with the letters of his name. They were mainly young and keen.




Number One for turning on the real thing was the Bill Richardson campaign. It featured Bill Richardson - the New Mexico Governor wearing the highly emblematic Boston Red Sox garb and out there glad-handing the people all the way down the parade route, surrounded by a cheery hubub of his volunteer squad.




All the way, the Democrats were Number One - in terms of candidates represented and in terms of numbers. Among them, after those three outstanding firsts, came:

Number Two - John Edwards. As ever, the North Carolina candidate was given very strong and enthusiastic support. His people had hooters and noise-makers and revved along in infectiously high spirits.


Number Three was Chris Dodd. His campaign is not the richest in the race but the supporters truly showed their love by the large number of well-wrought home-made signs they carried. It was a strong and interesting showing.



The Republicans, generally, were a bit lacklustre compared to the leading Democrats. There simply was not such a mass out marching, not such a sense of solidarity or excitement. Among the GOP candidates, however, it was John McCain who seemed to show the most supporters. Not that this was a lot. But at least they tried, defying McCain's flagging numbers in the official polls by carrying giant number 1s.




For all the publicity he has been receiving and for all the advertising with which he has been blanketing the media, one might have expected something more impressive from Mitt Romney's volunteer brigade. It was a fairly meagre showing with a pretty hokey banner.



Similarly Rudy Giuliani managed only so-so representation in the unofficial people poll of the Independence Day parade.





The Republican maverick, Ron Paul, fared better. He has an arresting campaign motto and the few outsider supporters he has are about as passionate as political animals get. Paul is the libertarian Republican, the man who would just about abolish government itself if he had his way.



Democrat Joe Biden is a very fine candidate and really deserves better than the thin ranks who carried his name through the parade. Fact is, he simply hasn't raised his profile enough in New Hampshire so far.



Republican Tom Tancredo is the man who stands on one issue - immigration. He is against it. He had a huge van plastered with his photograph. Not too many people, though. This man led them. Need I say more.




Last and least was Sam Brownback, the Republican who, like Tancredo, doesn't stand a chance. His people had a car.




And thus do we see, very clearly, that the Democrats are a vital force and that the given leaders in the polls seem pretty well represented as such. If there is a big surprise in this display, it is Chris Dodd, who may well be the dark horse on his way up, if one gives significance to this public showing of personal support among the New Hampshirites.

2 comments:

Ottavio (Otto) Marasco said...

There is visibly more energy behind the Democrats, this is apparent even from my end of the world. The republicans seem a tad unsettled with no candidate shining through or, as the NY Times put it, “with the party failing to coalesce around a favoured candidate”. McCain, once the Arizona Republican fated to be the nominee is still a mystery. Many have written him off, “John McCain is becoming irrelevant” wrote one prominent blogger, “McCain Death Watch” writes the NY Sun. However, is he just in financial crises or political crises? The former has been confirmed by the latest Q2 fundraising reports and his candidacy is down but Americans are fans of the underdog (or downtrodden) so the empathy factor may kick in. Secondly McCain is a proven himself fighter and will not easily be browbeaten by his positions on immigration or electoral concerns about bipartisanship. Finally his poll numbers in key states actually rose which should be encouraging for his camp. Evidently however, he needs to reconnect with America’s Conservative base.

Anonymous said...

Well written article.